Declinism

Dear all

It’s been Business and Economics Enrichment Week in school, and in Monday’s assembly we considered a trend in political and economic debate that has become prominent in recent years – declinism.

Declinism is the belief that a country or society is in a state of decay or is getting worse. According to recent research, 68% of people in Britain believe the country is in decline, up from 48% just a few years ago. While most other Western countries are experiencing the same, polling suggests it is felt more acutely here than in most other places.

Many people say that our political and economic systems are no longer working for them. 70% of Britons think the economy is ‘rigged’ to favour the rich, and there is a widespread belief that politicians and experts simply do not understand the lives of ordinary people. When people feel that those in charge are making decisions for themselves rather than the public, the feeling that everything is ‘going downhill’ starts to grow.

However, declinism is also a tool used in politics, and different groups use this ‘doom narrative’ to push their own agendas:

On the Right, politicians often use the idea of ‘lawless Britain’ to suggest that society is collapsing, telling vivid stories of knife crime or fighting to suggest that our streets are more dangerous than ever. This is used to castigate those in power and demand harsher sentences or more restrictive laws based on a perception of chaos. On the Left, there is a strong narrative that traditional parties and politicians have failed and that the ‘economic elite’ are a closed group looking out for their own interests.

So, why should our students take an interest in this?

Partly, because perception drives policy. If we only listen to the loudest ‘doom narratives,’ we ignore the long-term progress we have made in many areas of life, and if we believe our society is sinking into lawlessness or total failure, we will demand policies suited to a collapsing country – policies that might actually limit our liberties or waste resources. And partly, because we need to apply a healthy dose of scepticism to declinist narratives. In other words, we need to ask if this idea – whether from right or left – that everything is worse than it used to be, is true. For example, murder rates in London are at their lowest levels in decades, possibly since the 1970s or even earlier, and other metrics challenge the claim that things have never been worse. In fact, some people argue that in many ways, things have never been better – a claim that also needs to be scrutinised, of course.

It’s also worth acknowledging that while this is a current trend, declinism is actually a recurring theme in history. In fact, if History is a good indicator of current trends, it is no surprise at all that we have a strong streak of declinism in our public and political discourse at the moment, because it has also been there in the past during times of rapid change or uncertainty. In fact, during several periods in our history, our ancestors have felt just as pessimistic as many people do today. History shows us that these feelings of decline tend to peak during specific moments:

• During Election Years: Declinism is a powerful political tool; researchers have found that ahead of major global elections, populist attitudes and “anti-system” feelings tend to surge;
• During Economic Hardship: When people feel the economy is “rigged” to advantage the rich and powerful (as 70% of Britons currently do), they are much more likely to believe the entire country is in decline; and
• When there is a ‘Disconnect’ with Leadership: Declinism flourishes when there is widespread suspicion of “elites and experts”. Currently, 64% of people in Britain feel that experts do not understand their lives, which fuels the belief that the system is failing.
  Understanding declinism is like looking through a pair of scratched glasses. If the lenses are covered in marks, the whole world looks broken and dirty, even if the sun is shining. Our job is to help our students keep the lenses of discourse clean, so they can see what really needs fixing and what we should actually be proud of.

Have a great weekend

Best wishes

Michael Bond